Decision Making Questionnaire
These questions come from Dr. Paul Hershberger's Inventory of Cognitive Biases
in Medicine, and Scott Plous's The Psychology of Judgment and Decision
Making.
- A 40 year old female complains of morning stiffness and join pain.
Rank these 3 diagnoses in order of likelihood:
- She has hypertension
- She has hypertension and rheumatoid arthritis
- She has rheumatoid arthritis
-
Your patient is a young man referred to you from an inner-city screening
clinic. The patient appears to be very effeminate. He is more likely here
for:
-
Hypertensive screening
-
HIV screening
-
600 people will die from a flu outbreak. Which do you prefer?
-
A treatment program that will definitely save 200 people
-
A treatment program that has a 1/3 chance of saving all 600 people,
but a 2/3 chance of saving no one
-
Captopril is a safe and effective treatment for hypertension in
diabetic patients. One of the rarer side effects is severe hypotension
in a patient with renal failure. One of your diabetic patients with
mild renal failure has just suffered a stroke shortly after starting
on Captopril. You now have a diabetic patient in your office who
has hypertension and mild renal failure. Which would you do?
-
Prescribe Captopril
-
Prescribe an alternative medication
-
A piece of paper is folded in half, in half again, etc.
After 100 folds how thick will it be (take your best guess)? _____________
Now give a range of thicknesses so that you're 95% sure that the answer
lies between _______ and ________
-
Two hospitals serve a certain city. In the larger hospital, 45 babies
are born each day; in the smaller, 15 babies. For a year, the hospitals
recorded the number of days on which more than 60% of the babies born
were boys. At the end of the year, which hospital recorded more such days?
-
Which would you prefer?
-
$1,000,000 for sure
-
A 10% chance of $2,500,000, an 89% chance of $1,000,000, and a 1% chance
of $0
Which would you prefer?
-
An 11% chance of $1,000,000, and an 89% chance of $0
-
A 10% chance of $2,500,000, and a 90% chance of $0
-
You are a pediatrician. The last four patients you have seen in your office
today have been girls. Is the next patient you see more likely to be:
-
A girl
-
A boy
-
Either is equally likely
-
Are there more words in the English language that start with "r" or for
which "r" is the third letter?